Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Campaign Is Winning Republicans, Not Democrats

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More than three months into Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s long-shot bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, the anti-vaccine activist who is former President John F. Kennedy’s nephew hasn’t seen his support grow among the party’s electorate. 

But following news coverage of his bigoted comment that COVID-19 could have been “ethnically targeted” to protect Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people and his appearance before a GOP-led House panel, our new survey finds he has improved his standing among Americans who plan to vote in Republican contests next year, while his popularity with the Democratic electorate has tumbled. 

According to our July 20-22 survey, 41% of voters who said they plan to vote in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in their state hold unfavorable views of Kennedy — up from 24% in early April. Over that period, the share who hold favorable opinions declined from 46% to 38%. 

Meanwhile, Kennedy’s favorability rating has improved from 42% to 50% among potential Republican primary voters as he’s criticized President Joe Biden and espoused health-related conspiracy theories that appeal in some right-wing quarters.

The latest data was collected after Kennedy’s July 20 testimony to the House’s Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, which Republicans launched to probe a wide range of anti-Biden investigations. Kennedy was on hand to talk about censorship, but faced a barrage of Democratic-led questions about his COVID-19 conspiracy theory.

Awareness of Kennedy reached a high point over the weekend in our tracking of the contest, with 59% of potential Democratic primary voters — and 53% of the overall electorate — saying they had recently heard something about him. Roughly 2 in 5 (41%) said that information was negative, compared with 18% who said it was positive. 

While Kennedy’s campaign and notoriety may serve as a talking point for Republicans looking to draw attention away from their own messy primary, it hasn’t hurt Biden’s support with the Democratic electorate. The incumbent president only slightly underperforms the support Donald Trump had with his own party four years ago.

Our new survey found that 71% of potential Democratic primary voters would vote for Biden, compared with 12% who would back Kennedy and 4% who would support author Marianne Williamson, who also sought the party’s 2020 nod. The numbers are in line with Biden’s standing in April following Kennedy’s campaign launch.

Biden’s support continues to be stronger among men than women (75% to 68%), though that gap has closed a bit since April. He also performs slightly better among Black voters than white voters (77% to 71%), keeping him on solid ground with a key Democratic constituency.

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