Fumio Kishidas Approval Rating Nears All-Time Low

In the week ending July 30, 2022 — marking the peak of the LDP’s support following Abe’s assassination — 46% of Japanese adults cited the LDP as the party that most closely represents their political beliefs. As of March 11, 2023, that share had declined by 10 points. While Kishida’s fortunes appear to have improved considerably since, the party’s rebound has been far more modest (just 2 points). This could bode ill for the party in upcoming elections, and in turn for Kishida, testing the significance of his recent resurgence as well as his staying power.

Meanwhile, the LDP’s junior coalition partner, Komeito, continues to poll steadily at roughly 4%. These figures do not necessarily translate to Diet seats: A little under 40% of each house is elected by ballots of generalized party support, as opposed to the rest, which are linked to specific candidates contesting discrete districts. But the shift is at least symbolic, as it no longer implies majority public support for the incumbent coalition.

An opposition opportunity?

Public support for the current incarnation of Japan’s traditional left-leaning opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has increased slightly in recent months but has been upstaged in our polling by the Japan Innovation Party, or Ishin — an increasingly influential Osaka-based conservative reformist party that’s hoping the upcoming local elections will catapult it from regionally focused arriviste to entrenched national significance. Ishin currently holds just 40 seats to the CDP’s 97 in Japan’s lower (and more powerful) house of parliament, which appoints the prime minister. Though the two parties have recently cooperated to stymie Kishida’s agenda, and while each is poised to benefit individually from the upcoming local elections, they are unlikely governing partners given Ishin’s support for amending Japan’s constitution, a move the CDP opposes. Conversely, despite a rightist orientation and common ground over the constitution that would seem to make Ishin a natural coalition partner for the LDP, Ishin leadership has refused such an alliance, citing its commitment to aggressively overhauling Japanese society and preferring to remain an insurgent opposition force for now.

In parallel, the share that says another or no party best represents their political views has rebounded significantly in 2023 and currently outpaces all potential opposition parties.

What’s next for Kishida, the LDP and Japan

While much hangs in the balance going into the upcoming elections, it is more likely than not that Kishida will finish his term as prime minister. But even if the LDP claws back some political capital, he and his party will still be operating with significantly diminished capacity to pursue their legislative goals going forward. This will likely dampen Japan’s ability to deal with lingering economic issues such as the need to raise wages and reform rigid labor laws, which may in turn dent Japan’s appeal as a destination for inbound investment from multinationals.

Knock-on effects for regional geopolitics

The geopolitical ramifications of Kishida’s and the LDP’s diminished clout are potentially even more severe. Last year, Kishida secured a commitment to increase defense spending to 2% of Japan’s GDP, a decision that was lauded in Washington, which would like to see its most significant ally in the Asia-Pacific region shoulder a greater defense burden to hedge against China. But the timetable for this increase remains up in the air, as Kishida’s plans for tax increases to fund this new defense commitment were ultimately stymied by pushback from within his own party.

Likewise, the LDP’s long-held goal of reforming Article 9 of Japan’s constitution, which would allow the country to develop more offensive military capacities, faces steep hurdles. A poor election showing could further limit constitutional reform prospects. This would no doubt please Beijing and frustrate Washington, contributing to greater regional uncertainty moving forward. While local elections are not routinely influential as far as geopolitics is concerned, those with interests in the region should pay especially close attention this time around.

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